OECD Reports Global Migration Decline Amid Sharp Policy Shifts

Editorial Deep Dive & Context

Migration to developed economies declined for the second consecutive year in 2025, with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recording 6.1 million new permanent immigrants, a 1.6% decrease from the previous year. This downward trend was primarily driven by a sharp 26% drop in legal humanitarian migration, reflecting intensified Western backlash against irregular arrivals linked to conflict and authoritarian rule.

Conversely, labor migration surged by 13%, indicating a structural shift toward economic-driven movement rather than asylum-seeking. Country-specific data reveals divergent trajectories shaped by domestic policy adjustments.

Portugal experienced a dramatic 139% surge to 313,600 immigrants due to the approval of long-pending residency backlogs, while Spain and Italy saw increases of 25% and 45% respectively following broadened residency frameworks. In contrast, major destinations like the United Kingdom (-32%), Canada (-19%), and the United States (-14%) recorded significant declines, though the US remained the top recipient with over 1.2 million arrivals. Japan bucked the global trend, recording a 9.5% increase to 192,000 immigrants, with labor migrants constituting 63% of the total. Despite the recent annual contraction, long-term settlement figures remain 12% higher than pre-pandemic 2019 levels. The OECD’s International Migration Outlook 2026 highlights that while overall volumes are stabilizing or shrinking in traditional Western hubs, administrative processing reforms in Southern Europe are temporarily inflating arrival statistics.

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